US oil output to hit record high as prices drop

US oil production is set to end the year at a record pace of about 14 million barrels a day as falling costs and improved drilling efficiency overshadow subdued growth plans from publicly listed companies, Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts said in a note as Bloomberg reported.

Macquarie stood out among analysts last year with its projection of increased US shale production and ultimately was proved correct.

Its latest forecast comes as shale-oil explorers are vowing to rein in production growth for a fourth straight year and consolidation in the industry presents headwinds to further growth.

The US government expects production to edge up to 13.2m barrels a day this year.

Macquarie models US production exiting 2025 at about 14.5m barrels a day, despite expectations for significantly lower crude prices.

“This year’s headwinds could flip to tailwinds in a scenario where the growth impulse from private companies recharges and public companies attack high-graded resource bases next year,” analysts led by Walt Chancellor said in the note.